Generative AI could impact 300 million jobs, predicts Goldman Sachs
Recent advances in artificial intelligence may cause some people to worry about job security – and with good reason. A Goldman Sachs report predicts that up to 300 million jobs could be affected by generative AI.
“If generative AI lives up to its promise, the labor market could face significant disruption,” the investment banker said in a research note (PDF) on Sunday. About two-thirds of U.S. jobs are exposed to AI automation, Goldman said, adding that of those affected, up to 50% of their workload could be replaced.
“Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are therefore more likely to be supplemented than replaced by AI,” the report said. About 7% of American jobs could be replaced by AI, Goldman estimates, with 63% supplemented by AI and 30% unaffected.
The technology, which can create new materials on its own, represents “a major breakthrough with potentially significant macroeconomic effects,” Goldman said. Widespread adoption of AI could increase the total value of goods and services created worldwide by 7% over the next 10 years, according to the report.
Generative AI captured the public’s attention with the November issue launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a chatbot based on a powerful AI engine capable of writing software, holding conversations and composing poetry. Microsoft uses ChatGPT technology base, GPT-4For boost Bing search resultsoffer email writing tips and help with creating presentations.
Since then, there has been a rush of Big Tech companies looking to capitalize on this breakthrough. Microsoft announced an expanded multi-billion dollar partnership with OpenAI to bring ChatGPT technology to its Bing search. Google, the creator of the world’s most popular search engine, responded by unveiling its Rival of ChatGPT, called Bard.
Citing a study that found that 60% of the workforce worked in jobs that didn’t exist in 1940, Goldman predicted that a quarter of all tasks performed in the United States and Europe could be automated by the AI. In the United States, clerical and administrative support positions are most at risk of job replacement (46%), followed by legal positions (44%) and architectural and engineering jobs (37%).
Jobs with the least exposure to AI include cleaning and maintenance, installation and repair, and construction work, Goldman found.
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